Local-Scale phylodynamics reveal differential community impact of SARS-CoV-2 in metropolitan US county (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2 transmission is largely driven by heterogeneous dynamics at a local scale, leaving local health departments to design interventions with limited information. We analyzed SARS-CoV-2 genomes sampled between February 2020 and March 2022 jointly with epidemiological and cell phone mobility data to investigate fine scale spatiotemporal SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in King County, Washington, a diverse, metropolitan US county. We applied an approximate structured coalescent approach to model transmission within and between North King County and South King County alongside the rate of outside introductions into the county. Our phylodynamic analyses reveal that following stay-at-home orders, the epidemic trajectories of North and South King County began to diverge. We find that South King County consistently had more reported and estimated cases, COVID-19 hospitalizations, and longer persistence of local viral transmission when compared to North King County, where viral importations from outside drove a larger proportion of new cases. Using mobility and demographic data, we also find that South King County experienced a more modest and less sustained reduction in mobility following stay-at-home orders than North King County, while also bearing more socioeconomic inequities that might contribute to a disproportionate burden of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Overall, our findings suggest a role for local-scale phylodynamics in understanding the heterogeneous transmission landscape. One Sentence SummaryAnalysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes in King County, Washington show that diverse areas in the same metropolitan region can have different epidemic dynamics.

Host-pathogen dynamics in longitudinal clinical specimens from patients with COVID-19 (preprint)

Rapid dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 sequencing data to public repositories has enabled widespread study of viral genomes, but studies of longitudinal specimens from infected persons are relatively limited. Analysis of longitudinal specimens enables understanding of how host immune pressures drive viral evolution in vivo. Here we performed sequencing of 49 longitudinal SARS-CoV-2-positive samples from 20 patients in Washington State collected between March and September of 2020. Viral loads declined over time with an average increase in RT-PCR cycle threshold (Ct) of 0.87 per day. We found that there was negligible change in SARS-CoV-2 consensus sequences over time, but identified a number of nonsynonymous variants at low frequencies across the genome. We observed enrichment for a relatively small number of these variants, all of which are now seen in consensus genomes across the globe at low prevalence. In one patient, we saw rapid emergence of various low-level deletion variants at the N-terminal domain of the spike glycoprotein, some of which have previously been shown to be associated with reduced neutralization potency from sera. In a subset of samples that were sequenced using metagenomic methods, differential gene expression analysis showed a downregulation of cytoskeletal genes that was consistent with a loss of ciliated epithelium during infection and recovery. We also identified co-occurrence of bacterial species in samples from multiple hospitalized individuals. These results demonstrate that the intrahost genetic composition of SARS-CoV-2 is dynamic during the course of COVID-19, and highlight the need for continued surveillance and deep sequencing of minor variants.

Estimating the false positive rate of highly automated SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid amplification testing (preprint)

Molecular testing for infectious diseases is generally both very sensitive and specific. Well-designed PCR primers rarely cross-react with other analytes, and specificities seen during test validation are often 100%. However, analytical specificities measured during validation may not reflect real-world performance across the entire testing process. Here, we use the unique environment of SARS-CoV-2 screening among otherwise well individuals to examine the false positivity rate of high throughput so-called "sample-to-answer" nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT) on three commercial assays: the Hologic Panther Fusion(R), Hologic Aptima(R) transcription mediated amplification (TMA), and Roche cobas(R) 6800. We used repetitive sampling of the same person as the gold standard to determine test specificity rather than retesting of the same sample. We examined 451 people repetitively sampled over 7 months via nasal swab, comprising 7,242 results. During the study period there were twelve positive tests (0.17%) from 9 people. Eight positive tests (0.11%, five individuals) were considered bona fide true positives based on repeat positives or outside testing and epidemiological data. One positive test had no follow-up testing or metadata and could not be adjudicated. Three positive tests (three individuals) did not repeat as positive on a subsequent collection, nor did the original positive specimen test positive on an orthogonal platform. We consider these three tests false positives and estimate the overall false positive rate of high-throughput automated, sample-to-answer NAAT testing to be approximately 0.041% (3/7242). These data help laboratorians, epidemiologists, and regulators understand specificity and positive predictive value associated with high-throughput NAAT testing.

Specific allelic discrimination of N501Y and other SARS-CoV-2 mutations by ddPCR detects B.1.1.7 lineage in Washington State (preprint)

Real-time epidemiological tracking of variants of interest can help limit the spread of more contagious forms of SARS-CoV-2, such as those containing the N501Y mutation. Typically, genetic sequencing is required to be able to track variants of interest in real-time. However, sequencing can take time and may not be accessible in all laboratories. Genotyping by RT-ddPCR offers an alternative to sequencing to rapidly detect variants of concern through discrimination of specific mutations such as N501Y that is associated with increased transmissibility. Here we describe the first cases of the B.1.1.7 lineage of SARS-CoV-2 detected in Washington State by using a combination of RT-PCR, RT-ddPCR, and next-generation sequencing. We screened 1,035 samples positive for SARS-CoV-2 by our CDC-based laboratory developed assay using ThermoFishers multiplex RT-PCR COVID-19 assay over four weeks from late December 2020 to early January 2021. S gene dropout candidates were subsequently assayed by RT-ddPCR to confirm four mutations within the S gene associated with the B.1.1.7 lineage: a deletion at amino acid (AA) 69-70 (ACATGT), deletion at AA 145, (TTA), N501Y mutation (TAT), and S982A mutation (GCA). All four targets were detected in two specimens, and follow-up sequencing revealed a total of 10 mutations in the S gene and phylogenetic clustering within the B.1.1.7 lineage. As variants of concern become increasingly prevalent, molecular diagnostic tools like RT-ddPCR can be utilized to quickly, accurately, and sensitively distinguish more contagious lineages of SARS-CoV-2.

Outcomes associated with SARS-CoV-2 viral clades in COVID-19 (preprint)

Background The COVID-19 epidemic of 2019-20 is due to the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. Following first case description in December, 2019 this virus has infected over 10 million individuals and resulted in at least 500,000 deaths world-wide. The virus is undergoing rapid mutation, with two major clades of sequence variants emerging. This study sought to determine whether SARS-CoV-2 sequence variants are associated with differing outcomes among COVID-19 patients in a single medical system. Methods Whole genome SARS-CoV-2 RNA sequence was obtained from isolates collected from patients registered in the University of Washington Medicine health system between March 1 and April 15, 2020. Demographic and baseline medical data along with outcomes of hospitalization and death were collected. Statistical and machine learning models were applied to determine if viral genetic variants were associated with specific outcomes of hospitalization or death. Findings Full length SARS-CoV-2 sequence was obtained 190 subjects with clinical outcome data. 35 (18.4%) were hospitalized and 14 (7.4%) died from complications of infection. A total of 289 single nucleotide variants were identified. Clustering methods demonstrated two major viral clades, which could be readily distinguished by 12 polymorphisms in 5 genes. A trend toward higher rates of hospitalization of patients with Clade 2 was observed (p=0.06). Machine learning models utilizing patient demographics and co-morbidities achieved area-under-the-curve (AUC) values of 0.93 for predicting hospitalization. Addition of viral clade or sequence information did not significantly improve models for outcome prediction. Conclusion SARS-CoV-2 shows substantial sequence diversity in a community-based sample. Two dominant clades of virus are in circulation. Among patients sufficiently ill to warrant testing for virus, no significant difference in outcomes of hospitalization or death could be discerned between clades in this sample. Major risk factors for hospitalization and death for either major clade of virus include patient age and comorbid conditions.

Anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies are associated with reduced viral load (preprint)

Anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies have been described, but correlation with virologic outcomes is limited. Here, we find anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG to be associated with reduced viral load. High viral loads were rare in individuals who had seroconverted. Higher viral load on admission was associated with increased 30-day mortality (OR 4.20 [95% CI: 1.62-10.86]).

Pre-Procedural Surveillance Testing for SARS-CoV-2 in an Asymptomatic Population Shows Low Rates of Positivity (preprint)

Background: Depression is a common cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. To detect depression, we compared Beck Depression Inventory scoring as a valid tool with participants self-reporting depression.Methodology: This cross-sectional study aimed to explore the diagnostic values of self-reporting in patients' with depression comparing to Beck Depression Inventory scoring in Mazandaran Persian cohort study, with a total of 1300 samples. The sample size was determined to include 155 participants through the census method. In order to increase the test power, 310 healthy participants were included in the study through random selection. In order to evaluate the diagnostic value of self-reporting, BDI-II was completed by blind interviewing to the case group as well as to another group who reported that they were not depressed, as control. Results: sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, false positive, false negative, positive and negative predictive values of self-reporting was calculated 58.4%, 79.1%,73.4%, 20.8%, 41.6%, 51.8%, and 83.2% for the total population respectively, as well as, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive and negative predictive values of self-report in males were 83.3%, 77.2%, 77.1%, 43.8% and 95.6% and 53.7%, 78.1%, 71.2%, 49.2%, and 81.1% for females, respectively. Conclusion: The positive predictive value and sensitivity of self-reporting are insufficient in total population and females, and therefore self-reporting cannot detect depressed patients, but regarding to its average positive predictive value, perhaps, it can be used to identify non-depressant individuals.

Performance Characteristics of the Abbott Architect SARS-CoV-2 IgG Assay and Seroprevalence Testing in Idaho (preprint)

BackgroundCoronavirus disease-19 (COVID19), the novel respiratory illness caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is associated with severe morbidity and mortality. The rollout of diagnostic testing in the United States was slow, leading to numerous cases that were not tested for SARS-CoV-2 in February and March 2020, necessitating the use of serological testing to determine past infections. MethodsWe evaluated the Abbott SARS-CoV-2 IgG test for detection of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies by testing 3 distinct patient populations. ResultsWe tested 1,020 serum specimens collected prior to SARS-CoV-2 circulation in the United States and found one false positive, indicating a specificity of 99.90%. We tested 125 patients who tested RT-PCR positive for SARS-CoV-2 for which 689 excess serum specimens were available and found sensitivity reached 100% at day 17 after symptom onset and day 13 after PCR positivity. Alternative index value thresholds for positivity resulted in 100% sensitivity and 100% specificity in this cohort. We tested 4,856 individuals from Boise, Idaho collected over one week in April 2020 as part of the Crush the Curve initiative and detected 87 positives for a positivity rate of 1.79%. ConclusionsThese data demonstrate excellent analytical performance of the Abbott SARS-CoV-2 IgG test as well as the limited circulation of the virus in the western United States. We expect the availability of high-quality serological testing will be a key tool in the fight against SARS-CoV-2.